Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.251233 2.376660 2.512538 2.672097 2.856273 3.064735 3.322423
2025-10-12 2.160029 2.326301 2.515182 2.749754 3.039697 3.396214 3.886000
2025-10-19 2.056032 2.241666 2.458942 2.738962 3.102104 3.577434 4.290451
2025-10-26 1.983125 2.183651 2.424168 2.744021 3.176843 3.777694 4.764193
2025-11-02 1.896488 2.101245 2.350680 2.689251 3.160752 3.843184 5.044009
2025-11-09 1.837879 2.048775 2.309683 2.671255 3.190114 3.975988 5.475737
2025-11-16 1.788402 2.004288 2.275029 2.657302 3.221304 4.113873 5.968271
2025-11-23 1.742687 1.961825 2.239829 2.638722 3.241842 4.235621 6.482949
2025-11-30 1.715691 1.941642 2.232229 2.657347 3.319935 4.470259 7.406776
2025-12-07 1.655578 1.875924 2.160216 2.578050 3.234097 4.388048 7.431662
2025-12-14 1.620665 1.841856 2.129473 2.557003 3.240633 4.483579 8.062519
2025-12-21 1.583628 1.803632 2.091320 2.522499 3.221336 4.524350 8.557027
2025-12-28 1.575179 1.803784 2.107041 2.571347 3.351254 4.910452 10.992638
2026-01-04 1.574056 1.813379 2.135989 2.642118 3.529118 5.467972 16.817143
2026-01-11 1.548252 1.788455 2.114599 2.632018 3.557145 5.672217 22.285552
2026-01-18 1.528426 1.770945 2.102954 2.636505 3.613223 5.973525 38.775450
2026-01-25 1.493993 1.732323 2.059249 2.586286 3.556724 5.935366 47.561214
2026-02-01 1.470940 1.708801 2.036753 2.569739 3.566128 6.102472 193.478965
2026-02-08 1.450157 1.687831 2.017208 2.556913 3.581702 6.297663 NaN
2026-02-15 1.429264 1.666144 1.995842 2.539842 3.586725 6.462884 NaN
2026-02-22 1.418675 1.658486 1.994862 2.556924 3.665684 6.932496 NaN
2026-03-01 1.384741 1.617301 1.942668 2.484058 3.543204 6.589866 NaN
2026-03-08 1.366116 1.597362 1.921902 2.464678 3.537311 6.714306 NaN